Analysis

Commodity Currencies Bid into Month-Finish

IC Markets IC Markets

Commodity Currencies, Each day

As week, month, quarter and half yr all conclude, the important thing commodity currencies have all breached key psychological ranges right now. USDCAD has slipped beneath 1.3100, AUDUSD has damaged zero.7000 and NZDUSD has damaged zero.6700.

The Loonie has had a robust month on the again of the rising Oil value. Technically USDCAD final breached the 20-day shifting common again on June three, (1.3435) and regardless of retracing to this key stage mid-month, has since turned decrease once more breaching 1.3300, 1.3200 and 1.3100. It’s down for a fifth consecutive day and what’s now the third weekly decline out of the final 4 weeks, right now printing a brand new development low (to this point) at 1.3085 and the important thing 161.eight Fibonacci extension. That’s the lowest stage seen since late January. The brand new low reaffirms the bear development that’s been unfolding since early Could. There could possibly be additional draw back bias if the Fed stays on its total dovish course and US-Iran tensions stay elevated, which ought to in flip hold oil costs underpinned. Subsequent Assist sits at 1.3050 and Resistance at 1.3170. The 200-day shifting common is a few important distance away at 1.3260 and the RSI has reached the oversold zone, buying and selling beneath 30.00.

The Aussie solely breached the 20-day shifting common this week. Nonetheless, it has adopted by, rising for its ninth consecutive day and buying and selling over the earlier resistance of the 50-day shifting common. zero.7000 is a key stage for AUDUSD, RSI is 60 and rising and with the MACD trying to shut the month over the zero Line for the primary time since April 23, momentum seems to be with the AUD.

The Kiwi has had a risky week following the RBNZ choice to depart charges unchanged on Tuesday. Nonetheless, as soon as once more the momentum has rallied into month-end. Following a protracted transfer down, the NZDUSD bounced from a double backside low at zero.6490 after final week’s announcement from the FOMC. The transfer stalled forward of the RBNZ, on the 38.2 Fibonacci stage and key spherical quantity at zero.6550. A breach of the June excessive at zero.6680 has seen additional strikes to the 50.zero Fibonacci and 200-day Transferring Common resistance zone at zero.6700-20. Assist sits on the 50-day shifting common and psychological zero.6600 and zero.6525.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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