GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold costs rejected at chart resistance, eyeing manufacturing ISM knowledge Already-dovish Fed view could depart room for USD rise in risk-off commerce Crude oil costs look weak as OPEC meets to debate output cuts
Gold costs retreated within the wake of the weekend’s G20 summit, the place the US and China determined to restart commerce negotiations. The transfer buoyed sentiment, sending bond yields increased and undercutting the enchantment of non-interest-bearing options epitomized by the yellow steel. Crude oil costs rose amid the commonly risk-on ambiance, monitoring an increase in bellwether S&P 500 index futures.
GOLD PRICES AT RISK IF US DOLLAR GAINS ON SOFT ISM DATA
Wanting forward, the highlight turns to the US manufacturing ISM survey. It’s anticipated to point out that factory-sector progress slowed for a 3rd consecutive month in June, placing it on the lowest stage in virtually three years. US news-flow has tended to undershoot baseline forecasts because the starting of the yr, opening the door for a still-more ominous outcome.
A disappointment that factors to deeper deterioration within the US progress would possibly bitter the markets’ temper. This may need restricted scope to encourage a shift in Fed coverage bets contemplating the dramatic dovish pivot that has already performed out. Buyers’ baseline assumptions implied in Fed Funds futures name for 3 cuts earlier than year-end alongside the already telegraphed conclusion of the QT steadiness sheet discount effort.
With that in thoughts, the US Greenback could have room to rise in risk-off commerce as liquidation bolsters liquidity demand. That may weigh on gold costs, though a concurrent decline in yields might restrict draw back progress. Cycle-sensitive crude oil costs may additionally undergo. Nevertheless, feedback kind an OPEC assembly suggesting an extension of coordinated output cuts is on the menu could considerably deter sellers.
Did we get it proper with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them right here to seek out out!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold costs pulled again from resistance marked by the confluence of the August 2013 excessive the underside of support-turned-resistance at set from December 2016, at 1433.85. A day by day shut under preliminary assist at 1392.08 exposes 1375.15 subsequent. Alternatively, a breach of resistance opens the door for a check above the $1500/ozfigure.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil costs are hovering under support-turned-resistance within the 60.39-95 space, with damaging RSI divergence warning of ebbing upside momentum. This would possibly precede a flip decrease. A break under assist at 57.24 exposes the 54.55-55.37 zone. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 63.59-64.43 area.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Forex Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the feedback part under or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter