FX Week Forward – High 5 Occasions: July Canada Jobs Report & USD/CAD Price Forecast

Canada Jobs Report Overview:

The July Canada jobs report is due out on Friday, August 9 at 12:30 GMT, and the info are anticipated to indicate one other strong pickup within the labor market.USDCAD costs have recovered in latest weeks as international danger urge for food and crude oil costs have taken a beating.Retail merchants have remained net-short since July 23 when USDCAD traded close to 1.3135; value has moved zero.5% increased since then.

Be a part of me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Forward webinar, the place we talk about high occasion danger over the approaching days and methods for buying and selling FX markets across the occasions listed under.

08/09 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Gross Home Product (JUL)

Amidst a deteriorating backdrop for international danger urge for food, the commodity currencies have come beneath vital stress in latest weeks. With the US-China commerce on the forefront of market members’ minds, oil costs have fallen again, weighing on the Canadian Greenback. If the world’s two largest economies stay on a collision course, it’s probably that the commodity currencies commerce in synchrony.

As such, the July Canada jobs report due out on Friday is unlikely to have a big affect on Financial institution of Canada rate of interest expectations, and thus, the Canadian Greenback. However for the in any other case softening international progress backdrop, there is probably not a lot of a case for the BOC to comply with the Federal Reserve or Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand in slicing charges.

The Canadian labor market is searching for a rebound in July after a smooth June. Bloomberg Information consensus forecasts name for the July Canada jobs report to indicate that the economic system added 15Okay jobs after dropping -2.2K in Might. However, 2019 has been 12 months for the Canadian jobs market, averaging 41.3K jobs added per 30 days because the unemployment fee has come down to five.5%, the place it on account of keep on maintain.

Financial institution of Canada Curiosity Price Expectations (August 2, 2019) (Desk 1)

The very fact of the matter is that the resilient Canadian labor market is giving the BOC to maintain charges on maintain for the foreseeable future. The September BOC assembly solely has a 10% probability of a 25-bps fee reduce, in response to in a single day index swaps. There’s a coin flip’s change of a fee reduce by the tip of the 12 months, and a 60% probability of a 25-bps fee reduce by January 2020.


USDCAD Technical Evaluation: Every day Timeframe (July 2018 to August 2019) (Chart 1)

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The synchronous selloff within the commodity currencies has provoked USDCAD to interrupt its downtrend from the Might and June swing highs. Bullish momentum has definitely perked up in latest days, with value comfortably above the every day Eight-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. Gradual Stochastics are in overbought territory whereas every day MACD is simply making its means via the sign line with a bullish crossover.

However, the bullish piercing candle across the July Fed assembly has seen little significant comply with via, insofar as each the August 1 and a couple of every day candles produced taking pictures stars/inverted hammers within the March 20/June 7 swing low space round 1.3238/51. Among the many commodity currencies, provided that the BOC is much less probably than both the Reserve Financial institution of Australia or the Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand to ease considerably in 2019, if there’s a rebound in danger urge for food, it’s probably that the Canadian Greenback shall be a essential beneficiary.

IG Shopper Sentiment Index: USDCAD Price Forecast (August 2, 2019) (Chart 2)

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USDCAD: Retail dealer information exhibits 38.6% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants brief to lengthy at 1.59 to 1. In truth, merchants have remained net-short since July 23 when USDCAD traded close to 1.3135; value has moved zero.5% increased since then. The variety of merchants net-long is 9.three% decrease than yesterday and decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 5.Eight% decrease than yesterday and 11.four% decrease from final week.

We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-short suggests USDCAD costs might proceed to rise. Merchants are additional net-short than yesterday and final week, and the mix of present sentiment and up to date modifications offers us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian buying and selling bias.


Whether or not you’re a new or skilled dealer, DailyFX has a number of assets accessible that can assist you: an indicator for monitoring dealer sentiment; quarterly buying and selling forecasts; analytical and academic webinars held every day; buying and selling guides that can assist you enhance buying and selling efficiency, and even one for individuals who are new to FX buying and selling.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Forex Strategist

To contact Christopher, e mail him at

Comply with him within the DailyFX Actual Time Information feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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